Preface: I think the iPhone 4 is what the iPhone should have always been. Minus the antennae “wardrobe malfunction” it’s a great device and fills needs of end-users very well. That said, this post is about the future of mobile technology and innovation. It’s not an anti-Apple post, it’s just a vision; and how I see things playing out:
The programming Language: QT
Operating system’s aside, a cross-platform programming language is in the works and adoption is imminent; in fact, it’s already begun. The world of Mobile is now centered on application development, media consumption, media creation – more so than communication. In fact, the application marketplace is the serious money-maker in mobile, and that’s not going to change any time soon.
Support for QT is available and will be available on:
- MeeGo: A combined effort by Nokia and Intel, combining two of their open-source mobile Linux distributions
- Android (link): Google’s phone operating system, which is taking the US market by storm and starting to gain better traction over seas
- Windows Phone 7 (link): Microsoft’s soon to be launched mobile platform will also support QT applications
- Symbian^4: Nokia’s investment which is aimed at completely resetting the bar of the smartphone, by spreading smartphone features to low-end phones (more on that in a minute).
Developing a on a single application platform and hitting four application marketplaces, globally, will be the smart decision for any dev-house. Regardless of which language it’s done in, it’s within the best interest of developers to make applications that can hit a broader audience, on as many platforms as possible, with optimal effort.
The new developer model will end up being “develop for cross-platform” and then “port to Apple’s closed system” if the application works in the other markets. That’s just business sense.
Android, Windows Phone 7, MeeGo and Symbian^4 are the future of mobile technology, in its many forms and facets.
Resetting the bar
Symbian^4 is aimed directly at the low and middle-end markets. The strategy? Bring today’s smartphone features to non-smartphone phones…
What’s this do? It basically flattens the line on “old style dumbphones” that merely text and call. In fact, you can count on the dumbphone to become extinct in the next 3 years, at least I think it will. If that’s the case, then what’s going to make smartphones… smartphones?
Tomorrow’s Smartphones
The simple truth is, mobile technology is at about the same common-place as shoes and socks… Even 6 year olds carry cellphones now-days. In order for a smartphone to be considered truly high-end, it’s going to have to accomplish the innovations of tomorrow. It’s going to fill more voids than just “apps” and pretty, glossy UI. In fact, it’s going to have to require open standards and:
- Compatibility: Effortless synchronizing between television, computer and phone are imminent standards. Expanding that to home appliances, your car, and a multitude of other life-tasks (paying for goods, entering your house, etc).
- Entertainment: Phones will include 5.1 digital surround sound, HDMI-out, access to online movie warehouses, and video processing power for HD streaming.
- Interface: Interact with your phone wirelessly from your computer (texts, phone calls)
- Open Platforms: Standardized VOIP, cross-platform applications, and across-the-board compatibility.
This is already underway.
None of this is actually “the future”; it just needs to become accepted by consumers. If Apple’s done anything, it’s shown the masses of “Motorola Razr” users that you can do more with a phone than merely text and call someone. They’ve lowered the barrier of entry for the “do everything” devices I’ve been carrying for nearly a decade, and took the idea of smartphone to the teenager, not just the businessperson. Now, the true innovators of the industry can carry a torch and push the limits of consumer acceptance a bit further with their already existing (and upcoming) technologies:
- Bluetooth and WiFi data synchronization has been a feature available for many mobile devices for years (PC Suite, BB Sync, ActiveSync) and that process is getting better, more inclusive, and will be more media-enabled in the coming year.
- Phones are already on the plate with Dolby Digital Surround Sound capabilities
- There are also handsets being shipped with HDMI-out
- Blockbuster and Netflix (yes, on iPhone too) are applications available to stream quality media to your device
QT is the next generation of cross-platform development, you can get it here. MoSync, established in 2004, is also a cross-platform SDK, it needs an upgrade in my opinion.
Closed-System Death?
As long as there is successful marketing, there will be available closed systems. For example; Verizon, a non-global system, a non-standard, a US-centric mobile carrier… they exist, they’re not going anywhere, and they’re going to keep on keeping on in their closed network, with their own technology. Apple isn’t going anywhere either, as I said above – the development priority path will/should change (cross-platform release, then Apple release), but there’s still a market for their devices.
It’s important to have competition. It’s important to have options. It’s important for companies to disrupt and stir up the market. It’s required for forward progress.
The next 18 months are going to be interesting.